We are almost at the end of the month of September. The first round of the presidential elections will he held on Sunday October 7. Since it is difficult for a candidate to be elected in the first round, Sunday October 28 will be the final phase between the two frontrunner candidates of the first round. What will these elections bring us ?
It is necessary to first look at the political context of Brazil. Four years ago, with the victory of Mrs. President Dilma Roussef, Brazil knew a strong segregation that led to a political hatred of classes. This became very clear in the following years leading to the empeachment of Dilma, orchestrated by the coalition of the right and of the ones in power , who feared to be brought to justice, because of the way Dilma allowed the Federal Police to investigate the corrupt politicians in office, be it in the congress or the provincial administration. From that time on , the talk turned to « pedalados » to say that Dilma had abused the financial management.
That has brought her to the destitution of the presidency of the Republic. No need to say that the manifestations organized by the dominant classes wanted to evict her. Not only have they been successful in removing Dilma, they also have done the most to condemn Lula, who was well seen by the people, thus making his candidacy invalid. It must be mentioned that , if Lula could participate in the elections, he would certainly be elected since he came out on top of the electoral straw balloting, even when being in jail.
Presently we face a scenario that questions the reasons for the down fall of Dilma. With Michel Temer in power , the country has known a regression because of the antisocial politics ( Reform of the labor code, public spending frozen for twenty years, the Reform of the educational system, the attempts to have the Reform of social prevision approved, the increase of the cost of primary needs…) The proof of this is the inquiry of CNI/Ibopery published in the Journal O Tempo this Thursday 27/09 which qualifies the government as the worst government (82% 0f the population)) that has existed since the redemocratizacion of the country.
Even so, we are facing the first elections after these political regressions. Would we be able to escape this labyrinth ? Does the present moment , faced with this scandal, promise a change ? Among the 13 candidates to the presidency of 2018, there are five who till now, have tried to stand out through the inquiries : Jair Bolsanano with 27%,PSL ;Fernando Haddad 21%,PT ; Ciro Gomez 12%,PDT ;Geraldo Ackim 8%.PSDB ; Marina Silva 6%,all trying to get votes in the first round.- The battle is centered around the access to a second round. In the debates the accusations multiply behind the back plan of political projects that are not clear at all.
The candidate of PSL, Bolsonaro, is a hard liner who preaches a bitter battle against banditism. He leans toward the military regime of which he is a part. As deputy to the National Assembly, he has made very polemic declarations against the homosexuals, the violence against women. He belongs to the elite class and his political thought matches his vice which has pretended that the bellies of poor women are the breeding ground of delinquency. He has been attacked during a campaign in Juiz de Fora by Adélio Bispo who stabbed him in the belly. The latter one defended himself holding the candidate responsible for sowing hatred.
Fernando Haddad, PT, is lucky , since the candidacy of Lula has not been validated, to inherit the intentions of votes for Lula who these days, propels him , thus passing from 9% to 21% of the intended votes. He embodies the left which identifies best the the thought of the larger part of the Brazilian of the lower class who have seen their lives improve considerably when Lula held the power. . We are speaking of a transfer of votes. Will this continue till the end ? The near future will tell us .
Ciro Gomes, PDT, would be an alternative in case the left wing of Haddad does not qualify for the second round. This would be difficult but not impossible. Alckim of PSDB and Marina Silva de Rede de Sustentabilidade are also in the running. The first would be the inheritor of Fernando Henrique Cardoso, the second elected president of Brazil. Catholic christian of the right, he does not stand out in the intentions of votes. Marina Silva does not go far either. It is the third time that she intends to get a mandate as president. She does not seem strong enough to convince the electorate.
There are other candidates who are less taken into account, among them is the favorite of the present president of the Republic who aims at the improvement of the socio-economic conditions and the stability of the money in a country that clearly has rejected the politics of the Temer government In whatever way things turn out, if my projections are correct, within a little less than two weeks away from the first election round, the ones who are best poisoned are on the one hand Bolsonaro who suffers the highest hostility of the voters, and on the other hand, Fernando Haddad of the PT, who enjoys the benefit of the legacy of Lula and Dilma.. The two may face one another in the contest of the second round. Unless the data change, especially due to the stagnation of Bolsonaro whose rejection is noticeable, in spite of the propaganda of the great media