THE POLITICAL DESTINY OF BRAZIL : 2018 ELECTIONS .

We are almost at the  end of  the  month  of  September. The first round of  the presidential elections will he held on Sunday October 7. Since it  is difficult for a candidate to be elected in the first round, Sunday October 28 will be the final phase  between  the two  frontrunner candidates of the  first round. What will these elections bring us ?

 

It is  necessary to first look at the political context of Brazil. Four years ago, with the victory of  Mrs. President Dilma Roussef, Brazil knew a strong  segregation that led to a political  hatred of classes. This  became very clear in the following  years leading to the  empeachment  of Dilma,  orchestrated by  the coalition of the  right and of  the  ones  in  power , who feared to be brought to justice,  because of  the way Dilma allowed the Federal Police to investigate the  corrupt politicians in office, be it in the congress or the provincial administration. From that time on , the talk turned to « pedalados » to say that  Dilma had  abused  the financial management.

 

That  has  brought  her to  the  destitution of the  presidency of the  Republic.                                                                                                                            No need to say that the manifestations  organized  by the dominant classes  wanted to evict her. Not only have they been successful in removing Dilma, they also  have  done  the  most  to condemn Lula, who was well seen  by the people, thus  making  his  candidacy invalid. It must be mentioned  that , if Lula could participate in the  elections, he  would  certainly be  elected since he came out on  top of the electoral straw balloting, even when  being in  jail.

 

Presently we face  a  scenario that questions the reasons  for  the  down fall of Dilma. With Michel Temer in  power , the country has  known  a  regression  because of  the  antisocial politics ( Reform of the  labor code, public spending frozen for twenty years, the  Reform of  the  educational system, the attempts to  have  the   Reform of social prevision  approved, the  increase of  the  cost  of primary needs…) The proof  of  this  is  the inquiry of CNI/Ibopery published in the Journal O Tempo this  Thursday 27/09 which qualifies  the government as the worst government (82% 0f the population)) that  has  existed  since  the redemocratizacion of the  country.

 

Even so, we are facing  the  first  elections  after these political  regressions. Would we  be  able  to escape  this  labyrinth ? Does the  present moment , faced with this  scandal, promise a change ? Among the 13 candidates to the  presidency of 2018, there are five who till now,  have  tried  to stand out through  the inquiries : Jair Bolsanano with 27%,PSL ;Fernando Haddad 21%,PT ; Ciro Gomez 12%,PDT ;Geraldo Ackim 8%.PSDB ; Marina Silva 6%,all  trying to get votes in the  first  round.- The  battle is  centered  around  the  access to a  second  round.  In the  debates the  accusations multiply  behind  the back plan of political projects  that are not clear at all.

 

The  candidate of PSL, Bolsonaro, is a hard liner who preaches a  bitter battle  against  banditism. He  leans toward the military regime of  which  he is  a part. As deputy to the  National Assembly, he  has  made very polemic  declarations  against the  homosexuals, the violence  against  women. He belongs to the  elite class and his  political thought matches his  vice which has  pretended that   the  bellies of poor  women are the  breeding ground of delinquency. He has been attacked during a campaign in  Juiz de Fora by Adélio Bispo who stabbed him in the belly. The latter one defended himself  holding  the  candidate responsible for sowing hatred.

 

Fernando Haddad,  PT, is lucky , since  the candidacy of Lula  has not been validated, to inherit the intentions of votes for Lula who these days, propels him , thus passing  from 9% to 21% of the intended votes. He  embodies the left which identifies best the the thought of  the larger part of the Brazilian of the lower class who  have seen  their lives improve  considerably  when Lula  held  the  power. . We are speaking of  a  transfer of votes.  Will this  continue till the end ? The near future will tell us .

 

Ciro Gomes,  PDT, would  be  an alternative in case  the left wing of  Haddad does not qualify for the  second round. This  would  be  difficult  but  not  impossible. Alckim of PSDB and Marina Silva de Rede de Sustentabilidade are also in the  running. The  first would be the inheritor of  Fernando Henrique Cardoso, the second elected president of Brazil. Catholic christian of the right, he does not stand out  in  the intentions of votes. Marina Silva does not go far either. It is  the third time that she intends to get a mandate as  president. She does not seem strong enough to convince the electorate.

 

There are other candidates  who are less taken into account, among them is  the favorite of  the  present president of the  Republic who aims  at the improvement of the socio-economic conditions and the  stability of  the  money in  a  country that clearly  has  rejected  the politics of  the  Temer  government In whatever way things  turn out, if my projections are correct, within  a little less than two weeks away from the first election round, the ones who are best poisoned are  on the one  hand Bolsonaro who suffers the  highest hostility of  the  voters, and on the other  hand,  Fernando Haddad of the PT, who enjoys  the  benefit  of the legacy of Lula and Dilma.. The  two may face  one  another in the  contest of  the  second round. Unless the  data  change, especially due to the stagnation of Bolsonaro whose rejection is  noticeable, in spite of  the propaganda of the great media